Market Outlook

Market Outlook

Can dollar stage a recovery ?

Dollar has got off to a very bad start this New Year. Rate hikes that were expected has been done away with and a sloppy inflation outlook won't rush the Fed into raising rates soon.

Gold continues its late last year rally into 2018 as it end last week at $1338/oz., longest rally seen in a while. Resistance comes in at $1350/oz. and $1365/oz. With no major dollar related event expected next week a correction in the rally can be expected from a technical perspective.

EUR/USD gained last week helped by a rather hawkish sounding ECB minutes. Angela Merkel improved her prospects to form a new government in Germany boosting euro hopes. EURUSD broke 1.2100 comfortly and now looks poised for a move to 1.2400. EURUSD traders would be closely watching the inflation figures getting released on Wednesday.

GBPUSD too benefitted from a weak US dollar. A softer than expected Brexit still remains a possibility lending pound support. GBPUSD is firmly placed in the uptrend channel with support at 1.3350. GBPUSD has CPI and retail sales figures getting released on Tuesday and Friday respectively. With the firm bullish tone dips should be expected to be bought.

USDCAD had a topsy turvy week as stronger data bought USDCAD down to 1.2400 only to be pulled back up with a renewed concerns about NAFTA. Bank of Canada meets this week to decide on rate hikes and that would set the tone for USDCAD for weeks ahead.

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